Even if GDP growth number is positive in Germany and negative in France, GDP profile lacks of momentum in both countries. A detailed analysis will come later during the day but it’s important to have the two profiles in mind
GDP dropped by -0.2% in the first quarter of 2013 . It was the same number during the last quarter of 2012 (numbers are -0.65% and -0.8% at annual rate respectively). Compared to the first quarter of 2010 economic activity is -0.4% lower. Carry Over growth for 2013 was -0.3% at the end of the first quarter.
The most problematic issue on France is the GDP profile. On the chart we see that since the first quarter of 2011 its level is almost unchanged. The main challenge for the government economic policy will to change this profile on the upside as such a trajectory is consistent with a reduction of employment.
Only companies’ investment can change this profile rapidly, but a stable financial and fiscal framework is needed to reduce uncertainty.
GDP was up by 0.1% during the first quarter after a deep drop of -0.7% in the last quarter of 2012 (+0.25 and -2.7% at annual rate respectively). Compared to the first quarter of 2012 GDP level is lower by -0.25% and carry over growth for 2013 is negative at -0.3% at the end of the first quarter.
German GDP profile does not show a strong momentum. It’s weaker than, expected.
More details later