Speech given at the Caledonian Club in London on September the 3rd
Reducing the gap between supporters of keeping Scotland in the UK and those favoring independence reflects both the passion around this issue, but also the limited period of time before the deadline of the 18 September. The YES progresses and the poll published this morning gives it at 47% against 53% for the NO (recent polls are here). Suddenly, the gap that seemed unbridgeable is dramatically narrowing. We need to keep in mind the 2005 referendum in France on the European constitution. The YES pranced for many weeks but eventually lost. The perception we can have of the Scottish referendum may be on the same dynamic. The impact of the narrowing of the gap can be perceived through greater nervousness seen in some segments of the financial markets. The pound was weakened and its volatility has increased.
Recent episodes on the separation of this type are few in developed countries. Two recent experiences are interesting to tell. Continue reading →