Just a remark on the US growth profile in 2019
US growth is expected at 2.9% on average in 2018. This corresponds to a growth rate of 0.7/0.8% in Q4 (non-annualized figures). This view is consensual, as is the consensual…
A dynamic and cyclical approach to the global economy
US growth is expected at 2.9% on average in 2018. This corresponds to a growth rate of 0.7/0.8% in Q4 (non-annualized figures). This view is consensual, as is the consensual…
Spectacular but frightening situation of Britain ahead of the Brexit that will come. An edifying article by Anne Applebaum https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-lure-of-chaos-is-leading-britain-straight-into-the-abyss/2018/12/21/650b3474-0489-11e9-b6a9-0aa5c2fcc9e4_story.html
The price of oil is, on December 19, 20% below its 2018 average. The contribution of energy to the inflation rate will quickly be negative. Inflation will fall below 1%…
The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points. The fed funds rate will thus evolve in the 2.25 – 2.5% corridor. This rate level is close to the…
Despite the agreement between the Italian government and the European Commission, the question of the Italian public debt sustainability is not solved. The marginal move from the government (reducing its…
The latest outlook note from French national statistics body INSEE (full-length version in French, English summary available here) suggests that the French economy will not be affected on a sustainable basis by…
The ECB puts all its energy on it but inflation does not converge frankly towards the objective (2%) it has defined. Can we say, like Mario Draghi, that the Quantitative Easing has…
The US external trade is weakening rapidly. Its deficit has never been so important (measured in real terms and ex oil trade). Imports have a strong momentum. It reflects the…
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