The flattening of the yield curve and the possibility of a recession in the US.

First step the 5yr-2yr spread is now null before being negative with the Fed tightening. Then the 10yr-2yr will flatten before being negative for the same reason. This has always been a signal of recession. This time is not different and 2020 can be anticipated for it.
spread5-2-us-en.png
The two curves have the same pattern even if levels are different. They provide the same message for 2020.
spread5-2er10-2USA-en.png

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