Eurozone recession?

The horizon darkens faster than expected in the Euro zone.
The German figures published this morning (January 8) suggest that the economy is heading towards recession (its GDP had already fallen in Q3). Italy, also with declining GDP in Q3, has negative signals via business surveys. It is also probably in a recession. The French economy lacks vigor, social unrest weighs heavily on the macro dynamics.

In other words, 65% of the Euro zone is probably in decline in the last quarter of 2018 (German and Italian declines do not make up for France’s slight rise). This creates a mediocre momentum and a real concern for the pace of growth of the area for the coming months.
In a context where inflation will be reduced, this will result in poor nominal growth that will not have the ability to create and distribute income. Better coordination of economic policy is a necessary condition (but probably not sufficient) to find a satisfactory trajectory.
Alas, we do not take that path. The two Italian deputy prime ministers blow on the French embers and do not encourage to imagine a serene future.

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