What to expect next week ?

Highlights
  • Chinese trade figures, industrial production and retail sales for May are key to see how China cushions the negative international trade shock. Weak number would imply new measures to support domestic demand
  • The US economy is slowing down on industrial side. This was shown by the ISM manufacturing index in April and the industrial production index is trending downward since the beginning of the year. A negative figure on industrial production for May (June 14) may accelerate the Fed’s monetary policy change (next meeting June 19).
  • This change in the Fed’s strategy may also reflect a lower inflation rate. CPI figure will show a lower headline inflation (2% in April) and stable core inflation rate. Retail sales (June 14) are volatile reflecting a weaker domestic demand. This could add up to CPI and industrial production in the Fed’s decision in June.
  • After weak figures in the in April, the Euro Area industrial production index (June 13) will be down. May be is it the signal Draghi mentioned yesterday in his press conference to move the ECB monetary policy on a more accommodative ground

The document is available here NextWeek-June10-June14-2019

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