Lower ZEW index implies turmoil in Germany

The drop of the #ZEW survey increases the downside risk for the #German economy. It is linked with the rapid slowdown of the world trade. As no agreement is expected rapidly (even with the Trump/XI meeting at the G20), the risk of recession is increasing for Germany.

The current conditions index is far from its recent highs but the June important fact is the strong change in expectations.The 1st component reflects the drop in German exports(-5% in April vs March and -3% in real term since Dec 2018).The momentum will not improve (expectations)
Mario Draghi said in Sintra that the ECB will ease if necessary. It may be sooner than usually expected

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