Angela Merkel’s Smart Move

According to the German newspaper Handelsblatt, Jens Weidmann, the current president of the German Bundesbank, will not be Merkel’s candidate at the head of the ECB in October 2019. Mario Draghi will leave the ECB presidency at this date.
This can be surprising but it is not. It’s the most rational decision for Germany.
The ECB strategy is often looked through the lens of the Bundesbank. We are all attentive to the German point of view. The German central bank is perceived as ultra orthodox on monetary policy and Germany is the largest and the most powerful country of the Eurozone. These two reasons suggest that there is no need of a German president. The Bundesbank president and the accumulated credibility of the Bundesbank are sufficient to condition the ECB’ s behavior. A German president would be redundant.
Germany can therefore choose a German candidate for another job at the top of an other European Institution and extend its influence.
Well done Angela

Wages and the ECB monetary policy

Discussions on wage dynamics in the Euro Area. The momentum is now higher (2%) but not sufficient to push core inflation on the upside. The enigma is not solved yet. That’s the analysis of this NY Times article.

Nevertheless, the example comparing France and Germany in the article is not totally convincing. There is still a lot to understand on the labor market.

Workers may finally be getting a bigger piece of the economic pie — at least in Europe. Just don’t ask why, or whether it will last.

In the decade since the financial crisis, much of the global economy has recovered and is back on stable footing. Companies are reporting record profits, unemployment levels are plummeting and overall global growth is back on track.

Wages in most developed countries, however, have barely budged.

Read the article here. nyti.ms/2mI1Hnv

Many European countries are against reforms in Europe => Which future?

Will the Euro Area be able to reform itself ? Macron/Merkel proposals are fight en by a group of countries led by the Netherlands. They refuse any cooperative instrument in the management of the Euro area.

On July 26, 2012 Mario Draghi said that the political construction of Europe was the most important element of the European architecture. He said, the most important in Europe is people’s will to live together. The euro currency was then just an instrument that supports this political construction.

With the reaction to the Macron/Merkel proposals, I am no longer sure of Mario Draghi’s assertion on the living together hypothesis.

www.ft.com/content/19eba02a-75fd-11e8-b326-75a27d27ea5f

The ECB new monetary policy

The ECB has dramatically changed its monetary policy. The Asset Purchase Programme (APP) will stop next December. The amount that will be bought by the ECB will be halved after September to EUR 15bn.
The ECB will continue to invest the proceeds of its portfolio. It will guarantee the liquidity of the market and maintaining rates at a low level.
The ECB said that rates will not increase before the end of summer 2019.

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ECB: status quo

Wait and see attitude of the #ECB in the management of its monetary policy. This is a sequel of the cyclical inflection observed since the beginning of the year. Is it permanent or temporary? The answer to this question is essential but it is still discussed by economists.

The ECB does not show a strong will to quickly change its strategy. That’s why we should not be surprised if asset purchases continue beyond the date of September 2018. The central bank is supposed to stop buying assets if the inflation trajectory is consistent with the monetary authorities’ expectations. This will probably not be the case. Moreover, by not creating the idea of ​​a rapid break, the ECB should allow the euro to depreciate against the greenback. This would have a stabilizing effect on the eurozone economic outlook. This is all the more likely as the Fed will be much more active in countering the destabilizing effects of Donald Trump’s fiscal policy.

The manufacturing sector is running out of steam in the euro area – My Monday column

World growth stepped up a pace in 2017 as a result of a policy mix that was heavily on the side of demand, while effective monetary accommodation worldwide combined with loose fiscal policy to further drive this recovery.
This extra demand had a positive impact on manufacturing activity in particular, leading to a recovery in world trade.
This upswing turned the trend around in the sector in the euro area as well as in France, where job trends displayed a shift, stabilizing and even improving in 2017 after several years on a downtrend, if we include temporary employment in the sector. There was also a knock-on effect on services, pushing up overall activity overall.

France-manufJobs

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ECB rate: an amazing calculation

Central bankers are very attentive to the unemployment rate even if it is for different reasons. In the US, Janet Yellen’s main target was the unemployment rate and she drove the USA economy to full employment at the end of her mandate. Mario Draghi doesn’t focus too much on the unemployment rate during his press conferences. But when we look at low inflation pressures in a Phillips curve we can anticipate that the equilibrium unemployment rate is lower than what we previously thought. It will have to be lower than now to generate inflation pressures.
The comparison of the US and EA unemployment rates is amazing as they follow the same post recession trend Continue reading