A complement to my recent post on the signal brought by an inverted yield curve on the economic activity.
The Federal Reserve isn’t worried about the yield curve, and it has reason why. The problem: It is pretty much the same reason it wasn’t worried about the yield curve before the financial crisis.
— Read it here www.wsj.com/articles/what-the-fed-is-missing-again-1532268000
Interesting paper that explains the new main characteristic of fixed income markets is the lack of liquidity.
I think that one consequence of this lower liquidity is on capital mobility. And it will be mainly damaging for emerging countries which are already in crisis. It means that capital outflows observed since mid-April will not be reversed. No investors will take the risk of liquidity. This will be a persistent negative shock for emerging markets. Rules for emerging markets have dramatically(see here) changed but in the wrong direction
This is my weekly column on Forbes.fr
It is available in French here
Here is the English version
The financial markets are carrying high prices in industrialized countries and this makes for some seriously tough choices for investors who want to invest their capital. Very low interest rates mean very expensive bonds. Meanwhile, the equity markets have recently staged a spectacular rally, particularly in the US after Donald Trump’s election. Seeking to invest savings on markets that are already expensive or very expensive is a difficult and complex process. In the past, we have always seen a wide range of assets with vastly differing valuations, so choices were easier as there were often assets that had been neglected by investors and carried a discount. But things no longer work that way for a number of reasons.