The OPEC agreement on higher oil production will mainly benefit to Saudi Arabia which will gain market share on the oil market. The increase in oil production is global and there is no distribution by country. Saudi Arabia can easily increase its production but Iran will not be able to increase it (sanctions) and Venezuela is in a terrible mayhem and its production is trending downward.
In other words, Saudi Arabia and the US are the winners of this agreement.
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OPEC and its allies reached a preliminary agreement in the face of strong opposition from Iran to boost production by a theoretical 1 million barrels a day — the actual increase will be smaller as several countries are unable to raise output.
In a night of drama in Vienna, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which recommends policy to the group, reached an agreement despite Bijan Zanganeh, the Iranian oil minister, walking out of the meeting and predicting OPEC won’t reach a final deal when it meets formally on Friday
After years of recession, the Greek economy is back to growth as the first graph shows. But the 2017 figure is very low while the rest of the Eurozone was in a strong expansion. Despite this improvement, the GDP level remains, at the end of 2017, 25% below the 2007 peak. The adjustment, almost 10 years of recession, that has been imposed by the troika (IMF, European Commission, ECB) was extremely strong, persistent and brutal. It has broken the capacity of the Greek economy to recover endogenously.
An historical comparison shows that the duration of the Greek depression has been longer than that witnessed by the US during the great depression in the 30’s. Ten years after the start of the US depression the US economy was back to its pre-crisis level. After 10 years, the Greek economy is still 25% below this peak. That makes the difference and show how deep and strong was the adjustment. Continue reading
Donald Trump’s threats to world trade are a desperate attempt from the US to maintain the country’s world economic leadership. The most dramatic shift over the past 20 years has taken place in China, as the country has displayed stellar growth and now accounts for an increasingly large percentage of the world economy.
China has been one of the big winners from globalization, as citizens have enjoyed an impressive surge in income to the detriment of the middle and lower classes in developed markets, as shown by Branko Milanovic’s famous elephant chart. This chart also goes a long way to explaining recent political events in western countries: the middle classes across the board have ended up in a more unstable situation than 10 or 20 years ago, and this has major consequences for the way they vote.
The industrial momentum that very swiftly pushes up income is now the preserve of Asia, and China in particular. Industrial output across the US, Japan and Europe – the three major areas that drove world growth after the Second World War – has stagnated over the past ten years, while figures in Asia (excluding Japan) have doubled. The “Made in China 2015” plan seeks to further accelerate this shift.
This contrasting industrial momentum now comes firmly down on the side of Asia and acts as the focus for Trump’s trade measures against China. Output is no longer increasing in western countries, but rather in Asia, driving the region’s catch-up trend and reducing developed countries’ headway. The US is seeing its leadership diminish, while at the same time the situation also raises major challenges for Europe, although it has not taken the same aggressive course of action as the White House. Furthermore, the industrial revival in developed countries often referred to as “Industry 4.0” only seems to involve the substitution of existing production, rather than a true jump in production volumes. For the moment, this so-called revival is not sufficient to point to a reversal in the aforementioned trend towards the location of production in Asian countries. Continue reading
Interesting remark from Bloomberg @economics. After Chinese retaliation measures, Trump has decided to extend tariffs to USD 200bn of Chinese imports in the US. What will be the Chinese reaction as US imports in China have not this level. The trade war will damage growth for sure