Elections in Brazil, on October 7, will probably change the characteristics of democracy. The election of Bolsonaro would amplify the populist wave seen with Trump, Orban, Conte, Duterte or Erdogan.
The Brazilian society may then become more violent as Bolsonaro doesn’t respect women and gays, he is a racist and accept violent behaviors from the police to fight crime. Two papers linked below give insights on ” who is Bolsonaro?” and why is he the favorite for this election.
Papers from Project Syndicate and from Foreign Affairs
To complete what was said in this post, the graph below shows the breakdown observed since mid-2013. The trend (in red) calculated on the period to peak of 2008 is not different from that which could be calculated over the entire period until 2012. In other words, the impact the 2008/2009 crisis was temporary and transitory on the behavior of the Brazilian economy
There is a real break since mid-2013. The point is just to show that there is certainly a change in regime for the Brazilian economy and the need to be attentive to this new trajectory: that was the subject of my post
I gave an interview to capital.fr. The text has been rewritten by the journalist Nicolas Gallant to appear as an article. The link to the original publication in French is here
Brazil is struggling. During the last weekend between 1 and 2 millions of people were down in the street to protest against the president Dilma Rousseff. A weak economy and corruption were the main reasons for these demonstrations. The slower momentum of China, lower commodity prices, a tight fiscal policy and high interest rates are drags to economic growth. According to Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Natixis Asset Management, Brazil is the most worrying countries among the large economies.
The two charts at the bottom of this post give a synthetic vision of the world economy. They present the synthetic index of the PMI/Markit surveys made throughout the world. It is specific to the manufacturing sector. The main reason is that world trade is based on manufactured goods. This can give an intuition of how world trade could behave in the coming week or months.
The first chart put together large developed countries, a BRIC(*) index and the Markit emerging index. The second chart gives details for BRIC countries. Continue reading