Recession in Germany
German production fell -1.8% in June over one month (excluding construction). It has fallen in 5 of the last 6 quarters and in Q2 the decline is -7.5% annualized rate.…
A dynamic and cyclical approach to the global economy
German production fell -1.8% in June over one month (excluding construction). It has fallen in 5 of the last 6 quarters and in Q2 the decline is -7.5% annualized rate.…
Is it culture or economics? That question frames much of the debate about contemporary populism. Are Donald Trump’s presidency, Brexit, and the rise of right-wing nativist political parties in continental…
The document contains in two pages the main articulations of global macro dynamics as I see them.The document is available here Macro-2Pagers-Scenario-June 4 2019
Employment increased in the euro area during the first quarter (+ 1.4% annualized). The pace of job creations is solid. However, since the beginning of 2018, productivity has lost momentum…
The cost of the Brexit referendum is becoming increasingly expensive for the British. The GDP’s deviation from its pre-referendum trend continues to widen despite the rebound in growth in Q1…
World trade is slowing down sharply. In the last quarter of 2018 compared to the last quarter of 2017, trade is now up only 1.5% against 3.9% in October. The…
Since the referendum on Brexit in June 2016, the dynamics of the British economy have been shrinking. Evidenced by the slowdown in growth in 2018 to 1.4%, the slowest pace…
Bottom line: the cost of public debt may be substantially smaller than current consensus. Therefore austerity policy is never the answer as it is too costly Olivier Blanchard presidential address…
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