3 Graphs on US Retail Sales in September: A Low Momentum

Retail sales were up in September. They increase by 0.6% after a retreat of -0.2% in August and a weak rise (0.1%) in July. On average for the quarter, retail sales are up by 2.9% after 6% during the second quarter. We see the summer change in the graph below. The three measures presented are weaker in July, negative in August and the rise is modest in September
usa-2016-september-retailsales-montlychange.png
The important measure is the core (in red in the graph above) that is defined as retails sales ex auto, gasoline and building materials. It’s an aggregate that is used to calculate households consumption in national accounts. Continue reading

United Kingdom (confidence), Japan (production) France (consumption)

uk-jap-fr-31aug.png

Rebound of the UK consumer confidence index in August

After the referendum on Brexit, June the 23rd, households were worried by the consequences of the “Leave” option. They thought that the impact would rapidly be negative. The consumer confidence index dropped deeply in July. It was driven by the uncertainty related to the 12 month outlook for the economy.

Since the referendum, no negative impact was perceived. Continue reading