18 points for the post-vacation period
The world economy has staged a rebound since April’s lockdown, yet the recovery is not complete, and spending in the services industry is lagging very far behind with uncertainties on…
A dynamic and cyclical approach to the global economy
The world economy has staged a rebound since April’s lockdown, yet the recovery is not complete, and spending in the services industry is lagging very far behind with uncertainties on…
The risk associated with coronavirus has provoked the state of emergency declared by the White House, forcing the Fed to collapse its intervention rate. The fiscal policy will have to…
The supply value chain is broken as a consequence of the Chinese containment. The recovery is slow and the epidemic is not over. Therefore, the global production will decrease. That’s…
Distortions on the US yield curve will force the Fed to reduce its rate at least one more time All the US rates are down, reaching unprecedented levels. Last Tuesday,…
By slashing its benchmark interest rate by 50bp, the US Federal Reserve indicates its long term pessimism. The graph shows that before the move, all the US interest rates were…
Markit, ISM, US Employment Report, German Industrial Orders, Chinese External Trade but also US 10 year rate at its lowest and central banks’ credibility Highlights Markit Surveys in the manufacturing…
The increase in economic policy uncertainty is well correlated with the fall in the 10-year interest rate in Germany. An illustration The graph is an illustration of the link between…
The absence of inflation gives additional margins in the event of a negative shock. The Fed is in a comfortable position The Fed is optimistic about the profile of the…
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