French employment is growing rapidly. 92 800 jobs have been added during the 1st quarter 2019. It’s more than the most optimistic forecasts and this figure is close to those strong numbers seen in 2017 when growth was stronger than now. Labor market reforms have been efficient.
With the strong economic policy measures on purchasing power that have been taken by the government, French growth is more autonomous and able to cushion the negative shock from world trade.
I follow this graphic step by step. The change in trend on the Jolts’ survey reflects that found in the Conference Board survey. The job market may be changing in the United States. You must have that in mind.
The labor market indicator in the Conference Board household survey changed trend in March. It is always easy to find a job but the indicator is now on the downside. Given the strong link with JOLTS labor market indicator, one may wonder about a possible reversal of the US labor market. This is a signal that seems relevant to me (see here for longer data and more in-depth analysis).
The unemployment rate is stable in France in the third quarter.It stands at 8.8% for metropolitan France, as it was during spring and at 9.1% when overseas departments are included, again as it was in the second quarter.The pace of the unemployment rate is consistent with that of the economic cycle. Nevertheless, it reacts now a bit faster to the evolution of growth than before the 2008 crisis. All the indicators suggest that growth is richer in jobs and that it regains some virtue with the increase in full-time work, the rise in fixed-term contracts and the decline in the share of fixed-term contracts.
The labor market is becoming more flexible and it is certainly a positive factor for the dynamics of employment. It is now necessary to improve the training component to further improve this phenomenon by enriching human capital. The aim is to bring down unemployment permanently and move towards full employment. The law passed last summer can contribute to it, it must now be implemented efficiently.Continue reading →
“To reduce the European unemployment rate, the ECB must copy the Fed’s behavior”
Growth in the euro area picked up considerably in 2017 coming out at 2.5% vs. 1.8% in 2016, and hitting its highest point since 2007. The ECB played a lead role in this economic improvement: its policy of keeping interest rates very low by maintaining the main refinancing operations rate at 0% and via its asset purchase program on longer maturity securities was very effective.
These moves helped encourage Europeans to spend now by reducing the incentives to hang onto their wealth and spend it later, and in this respect, ECB President Mario Draghi skilfully steered the situation. The growth we are currently witnessing is driven by private domestic demand i.e. household spending and investment.
Yet unemployment remains high in the euro area, standing 1.4 points above end-2007 figures, when it came to 7.3%. This means that growth has not yet fully completed its upward adjustment. Continue reading →
The report published recently by the Paris School of Economics measures income and wealth inequality around the world and reveals the high share of total income accounted for by the top earners, reflecting a very worrying situation. The report notes that the top 1% of earners worldwide captured 27% of total income growth since 1980 (net of inflation), while the bottom 50% captured only 12% of income growth over the same period. The world’s reference points have definitely changed over this period. Individual country income-inequality trajectories are sometimes even more stark, but inequality in Europe has remained relatively stable since 1980.
Income distribution inequality raises a number of questions, particularly the challenge of achieving strong and sustainable growth. If growth only benefits a very small minority, then our aims cannot merely be restricted to growth at any price. The trickle-down theory whereby the poor derive benefits when the rich get richer is clearly not working, so it is vital to come up with different targets and mechanisms alongside growth to ensure a more balanced society. Continue reading →