Synthetic indices on economic activity stabilized in August according to the Markit Survey that was out this morning. These figures are consistent with a 0.5/0.6% GDP growth for the third quarter (non annualized figures).
The employment momentum is still robust but doesn’t accelerate anymore. But the business cycle is still virtuous with a strong momentum in the manufacturing sector. The survey price index stabilized in August. The ECB can maintain its accommodative bias on its monetary policy. The more expansive euro has not yet influenced companies’ behavior.
Strong growth during the second quarter
GDP growth was marginally stronger during the second quarter in the Euro Area. It was at 0.56% (2.26% at annual rate) after 0.51% (2.04% AR) during the first three months of this year. The growth profile has been slightly modified with this publication. Formerly, GDP growth for the first quarter was at 0.58%.
Carry over growth for 2017 at the end of the second quarter is 1.7%, close to 2016 average growth. We see on the graph that during the last three quarters growth is stable and close to 2% (at annual rate).
When we look at corporates’ surveys (see below), we can infer that GDP growth could be close to 0.5% (2% at annual rate) during the last two quarters of 2017. In that case the average growth for 2017 could be at 2.1%. Continue reading
The Eurozone synthetic index of the Markit survey for February 2017 is skyrocketing. Its level is the highest since April 2011. For France and Germany profiles are similar. The French index is back to its May 2011 level and for Germany the comparison is for June 2011.
Therefore the GDP growth for the first quarter may be stronger than expected and for 2017 the figure should be stronger than what is currently forecasted (see here).
Economic policy stances are more stable and more readable since 2014/2015. Fiscal policies are more neutral and the ECB strategy is accommodative and perceived as such for an extended period. As a consequence, companies and households’ behaviors depend more on their own constraints than on hazardous measures taken by governments as it was the case until 2012/2013. Moreover interest rates are very low, financial conditions very accommodative and the oil price is stable at a low level.
There is a need now to continue and the ECB will maintain its current strategy. This will help to amplify the current growth improvement.
The Euro Area index profile suggests that all the other countries (outside France and Germany) are also performing well (We don’t have early estimates for other EA countries). This means that the current impulse will lead to to stronger and more dense trade between EA countries creating the conditions for a more virtuous business cycle. It will be more autonomous and will create more jobs therefore reinforcing the internal demand momentum.
The main risk is on the political side.