Mexico – Change of course with Lopez Obrador

The Mexican election result was consistent with expectations. Lopez Obrador was the favorite with a large margin and he has won with 53% at the first round. Lopez Obrador was expected to win during the last two elections but the lack of transparency in the election process prevents him to win these two electoral consultations.

This time Lopez Obrador was way ahead in polls and this was, at last, confirmed by the vote. He has won with 53% of the vote after the first round while the leader of the right coalition was only at 22% and the candidate of the incumbent PRI party was just at 16%.

With this large victory that could be expected by reading pre-election polls, no one can be surprised. Investors were aware of the changes that will come in Mexico. Therefore, the Mexican peso just moved temporarily on the downside.

The main change with Lopez Obrador is that his election creates a real political break in Mexico. The left has not been in power for decades and people wants a real change. It’s an interesting move. In many countries where a strong political movement has recently been observed, it has been a turning point towards greater populism and the right side of the political spectrum. In Mexico, they go to the left. Continue reading

Turkish Lira Traders Brace for a Tumultuous Week After Elections – Bloomberg

Investors are bracing for a big move in the Turkish lira after this weekend’s election and they’re paying to protect themselves.

As Turks prepare to go to the polls on Sunday, the cost of hedging against fluctuations in the currency over a one-week period is trading close to the highest since the global financial crisis. Options that expire on Monday are pricing in at least a 2 percent move in the lira in either direction.

Continue reading www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-22/turkish-lira-traders-brace-for-a-tumultuous-week-after-elections

Emmanuel Macron is the President-Elect: He will face high challenges

The new French President, Emmanuel Macron, has won with a large margin. He had 66.1% of voters versus 33.9% for Marine Le Pen the other runner up.
The hierarchy of the numbers is consistent with polls even if the final numbers were above the top for one and below the weakest for the other. This is shown on the graph below.

The margin is wider than the 60/40 financial investors had in mind. They were optimistic with 60/40 as the French economy is doing well (see here). With a wider margin and probably with a majority for the new president at the National Assembly we can expect strong financial markets in coming weeks.

On the political side, the postponement of voters has worked well for Macron. In days before the vote, a lot of voters from Mélenchon, Fillon and Dupont-Aignan joined Macron as they didn’t want Le Pen as president after the debate (last Wednesday).

France-PresidentialElection2ndRound

The watershed between Macron and Le Pen was Europe. (see here and here)
Macron wants to adapt the French economy to a globalized world with the help of Europe. He has in mind to strengthen European institutions. He also says that he wants to adapt the French competitiveness to the global environment. That’s why he wants a lot of reforms. On Le Pen’s side, the target was to exit from all European institutions. She has this populist view that by closing borders, jobs and growth can be saved. Continue reading