What to expect next week ? (August 12 – August 18, 2019)


=> The recent volatility on financial markets, through lower interest rates, was the consequence of lower expectations on global growth after the White House announcements. In the coming week, there will be data on retail sales in the US (15), China (14) and UK (15). These data will show the robustness of the domestic demand. If these data are strong in the US and in China, financial arbitrage may be modified in favor of risky assets

=> GDP growth in Germany will be, in the Euro Area, the most important indicator of the week (14). The industrial production index dropped dramatically in the second quarter (-7.5% at annual rate) and this downturn is consistent with a negative growth figure (probably more than the consensus at -0.1%).
The ZEW survey for August (13) will highlight the duration of this drop —Employment figures in the Euro Area and the detail for GDP will be released on August the 14th.

=> Employment figures will be important as the unemployment rate is low now (7.5% in June) and the economic dynamics is lower.




What to expect next week ?

What do I expect as being important next week: 7 points at least
Markit and ISM indices in the manufacturing sector (June 3)
German Industrial Orders for April (June 6)
US employment for May (June 7)
Euro Area inflation rate for May (June 4)
 ECB meeting (June 6)
Trade war (no specific date)
Inversion of the US yield curve
The document is available here What to expect Next Week June 3 – June 7 2019